Going Green Means More Than Being "Eco-Chic"

Seven Green Trends to Watch in 2009
Written by Preston Koerner | January 3, 2009

Seven Green Trends to Watch in 2009

Last year I talked about five green building trends and most of that, generally speaking, was spot on. This year's going to be a little tougher nut to crack, however, because things are changing every day. After a week or two of new information, it could be that everything below will not make sense any more. I don't believe that will happen, but it could. Anyway, to cut to the chase, all of this is informal and anecdotal. I'm making these predictions based on approximately thirty years of seeing, studying, reading, working, and observing as a human being. You will certainly have a different perspective, but hear me out. When you're done, make sure to tell me what you think below.

Non-Green Will Not Survive
We all know this. The standard for building has changed. We're talking about building science and improving the way things are done. With a scarcity of capital for development projects and good workers looking to get paid, the best projects will get done by the best people. We're in a shakeout and only the strong, smart, and innovative survive. Which means this: Not only will non-green projects not survive, but the ones that do survive will be green or sustainable or natural or beyond platinum. You and I are the entrepreneurs of this world, and we must find a way to build / renovate the buildings that people need in a sustainable way. That's the future, and it's upon us.

Change Leadership Will Thrive
Things were so frothy going into 2008, it's not surprising we're experiencing a reset to reality. But in this process, it should be remembered, if history bears repeating, that great businesses have their genesis in tough economic times. With them, authentic and charismatic individuals, like a flock of phoenixes rising from the ashes, will shrug off reality and chase success -- they'll become trusted leaders. When things are good, everyone can find a modicum of success, but in this economy, the poseurs will be exposed for what they really are. Although there will be some tough times, now is the time for leaders to stand up and effectively innovate, because "true opportunity appears at the market bottom, not at the top." While everyone else is getting conservative and worried and immobile, change leaders will use available tools, find the important opportunities, and build necessary businesses.

Policy Activity Will Accelerate
With all this talk about green collar jobs and stimulating the economy, the government is going to be extremely, if not overly, active in policy matters. Never mind the fact that federal, state, and local governments have no money and didn't get their affairs in order when times were good, they'll all be involved with green incentives, regulations, and programs. Again, though, they have no money! To get money, they're going to talk about taxing weird things and probably won't take away tax breaks for other weird things. But all this won't stop them from actively legislating and regulating. The problem is, we've elected a bunch of hooligans -- lawyers and losers that owe everyone a favor and who are susceptible to lobbyists and unhealthy interests. I hope they stick with incentives (and not outright regulations); that way, the taxpayer has less risk in dealing with bad government policies.

Everything Will Shift
Get ready for everything to be different. New jobs will be different and skills will change. It's time to shift everything. Shift your mindset, shift your skills, shift your home -- do whatever it takes to stay healthy and happy. Take a scene out of Jim Carrey's movie and learn to say "yes!" to whatever you can. Find a way to save money. Find a way to sell the home and not incur a deficiency. Find a way to move and retrain yourself with new knowledge and skills. Find a way to be innovative. Find a way to pay your debts and not incur any more. Find a way to educate yourself and be nice. Just find a way to shift when the necessary time comes. It will come.

Efficiency & Energy Comes Into Focus
Going forward, incremental investments need to produce measurable results with a positive impact on the bank statement. If an investment has a long payback horizon or hard-to-quantify benefit, it may not be a priority for the short term future. Which is why smart upgrades in terms of efficiencies and energy savings might be high on the to do list. A penny saved is a penny earned. Plus, some utility companies are willing to work with you to find cost-effective ways to save money. Why not take them up on that opportunity? If you can spend a hundred dollars today and know you will save a thousand over the year, won't you make that investment? I think you will. You should.

Legitimate Impact Labels May Develop
Third-party certifications are only the beginning of where we need to go. Every house / project needs to have an impact label that tells you its energy efficiency, water efficiency, air quality, and carbon footprint. You should be able to ascertain its actual performance as of *today*. And with that information, you should be able to compare it, apples-to-apples style, with every other home / project in your neighborhood. That would be awesome. But who is going to pay to give every home or project an impact label? Where is that going to start? Green certification systems? Maybe. I'd like to see energy or eco-audits fill this role. How about this. States could (1) set the standard for the impact label, (2) mandate impact labels for every home / project sale, (3) train inspectors and pair impact audits with inspections, and (4) allow purchasers to deduct the cost of the impact audit from their state taxes (or grant some other reimbursement). Put the database in the public domain, and in time, you'd create an information-rich resource. Jobs would be created and states could even use the database to incentivize problem areas.

Beware of Green Fatigue and Words
In the middle of 2008, we wrote an article providing five suggestions for businesses to combat green fatigue and green noise. This is seriously something to pay attention to. As evidence of this, did you notice that Lake Superior State University's 2009 List of Banished Words included "green," "going green," "carbon footprint," and "carbon offsetting?" All for good reason, I might add. We should probably throw "carbon neutral" and "double carbon neutral" on the list, too, because no one is neutral. And Generation E is another one -- the thought of it makes me queasy. Just, could we all be cognizant of the fact that dialogue must be open, honest, and authentic using regular words and language? No b.s. or you're on the Black List -- a list that we're going to name the Eco-Black List. And then we're going to rename it back to Black List because someone should also ban adding "eco-" to perfectly normal words. Just think about it.

So this is it ... this is our list of Seven Green Trends to Watch in 2009:

1. Non-Green Will Not Survive
2. Change Leadership Will Thrive
3. Policy Activity Will Accelerate
4. Everything Will Shift
5. Efficiency & Energy Comes Into Focus
6. Legitimate Impact Labels May Develop
7. Beware of Green Fatigue and Words

Source: Jetson Green


This article is excellent because it outlines how and why the green trend will continue to survive despite economic setbacks. Now that consumers' eyes have been opened to the peril that our planet faces, taking steps towards sustainability is something that is viewed not only as smart and respectful, but necessary for humanity's prolonged survival. While Jetson Green is a website devoted mainly to green building, design and architecture, this article is clearly very general in terms of how it can be applied. More than anything, it is something that modern businesses and government officials might consider using as a mission statement, or a way to chart their environmental goals and progress. Green innovation is the way forward, and anyone who does not agree seems to be missing the boat--without a doubt, he or she will be left in the wake of progress as the rest of the world forges on responsibly to secure a healthy future for the Earth.

3 Trends, 13 Companies & 1 Wild Card To Watch In 2009

In December of 2008 Bruce Houghton assessed trends, companies, and wild cards that would come into play in the music industry in 2009. His ideas align with Kyle Bylin's trends for 2009, especially in the growing power struggle between fans/artists and the record companies. He assesses what will cause companies to fail and recognizes the companies that are keeping up with the ever increasing pace of the music industry as fans are demanding a larger role.

3 Trends, 13 Companies & 1 Wild Card To Watch In 2009 by Bruce Houghton

2008 was a year of retrenchment and experimentation in the music industry. Many companies cut staff while at the same time more than 200 music startups were launched according to Music Ally. As we look ahead to 2009, three trends - democratization, data and monetization - are dominating the conversations creating the new music industry.

Here is a look a those trends and some companies that exemplify them that I will be watching closely in 2009:

* DEMOCRATIZATION - It's about giving entrepreneurs, artists and fans the tools to compete with the major labels and Topspin Media is one of the leaders. They've already graced the cover of Billboard and helped launch new music by Byrne/Eno, Paul McCartney and others. But I'm betting that Ian Rogers and crew didn't come together just to build a better digital delivery system. Plus the real fun will begin when Topspin finally opens their platform to a wider audience and creative artists and labels show just how much they can do with it. Honorable Mentions: Project Playlist and all the services democratizing music discovery. Record labels need to figure out how to work with them instead of suing. Also Sonicbids, OurStage and others working to democratize live music. Tunecore gets kudos for all access flat rate digital distribution.

* DATA - How do you know what's actually working? Where are the fans coming from? What avenues lead to sales? Two companies bear watching in 2009: one new and the other old but trying to remake itself. Band Metrics will debut at MidemNet (Disclosure: I just joined the advisory board.) It's all about crawling the web, crunching the numbers and providing actionable information. EMI.com is part of that venerable label's effort to remake itself. So far, I not impressed, but there's an strong new digital team and the concept behind the re-launch - observe fans online and gather data - is spot on. Honorable Mentions: ReverbNation, Music Today's fan ticketing platform and others who help artists gather and use fan data.

* MONETIZATION: Any company that doesn't effectively deal with monetization both for themselves and for rights holders may not make it to 2010. In a slumping global economy, that means looking beyond ads for revenue and lowering the expectations of investors as well as labels and publishers. I'll be watching MySpace, YouTube, imeem and We7 to see how social networks, video, music discovery and ad supported music respectively work to improve income.

* THE WILD CARD: Bapapoo. Is it lawful to sell a "used" mp3 that you legally purchased? The courts will inevitably be called on to decide and the result could re-value downloads and effect consumer confidence.

Source: http://midemnetblog.typepad.com/midemnet_blog/2008/12/3-trends-5-companies-a-wild-card-to-watch-in-2009.html

Education in America

The state of American Education has been in question for quite some time now. Competency of the average American high school graduate seems to be decreasing, especially in comparison with students of the same age from other countries. In particular, American students' propensities for math, science, and engineering have diminished, despite higher enrollment and greater capacity for equal opportunity across lines of gender, ethnicity, etc.



As the economy has slumped, many are fearful that the US will need to rely upon other nations for the kind of innovation and invention that has helped to stabilize and revitalize failing economies of years past. With an exorbitant federal deficit already putting America at the mercy of global powers such as China, a weak education system with plummeting standards can only exacerbate the problem.

Percentage of the population ages 3-34 enrolled in school, by age group: October 1970-2007



*Beginning in 1994, new procedures were used to collect preprimary enrollment data. As a result, pre-1994 data may not be comparable to data from 1994 or later.
NOTE: Includes enrollment in any type of graded public, parochial, or other private schools. Includes nursery schools, kindergartens, elementary schools, high schools, colleges, universities, and professional schools. Attendance may be on either a full-time or part-time basis and during the day or night. Excludes enrollments in less-than-2-year postsecondary institutions and enrollments in "special" schools, such as trade schools, business colleges, or correspondence schools. For more information on the Current Population Survey (CPS), see supplemental note 2.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 2008 (NCES 2009-020), table 7, data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), October, 1970–2007.

National Center for Education Statistics

As college educations are necessary for the creation of businesses and careers that tend to drive the economy, I thought it necessary to also post some data specifically documenting undergraduate enrollment. All graphical data and analysis are taken from the National Center for Education Statistics, "the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education in the U.S. and other nations".
NCES is located within the U.S. Department of Education and the Institute of Education Sciences.

PARTICIPATION IN EDUCATION: UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION

From 2000 to 2007, undergraduate enrollment rose by 19 percent. During this period, there were larger relative gains in female enrollment, full-time enrollment, and enrollment in private institutions than in male enrollment, part-time enrollment, and enrollment in public institutions.

Total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions increased from 7.4 million in 1970 to 13.2 million in 2000 and to 15.6 million in 2007. According to projections, enrollment in undergraduate institutions is expected to reach 17.5 million in 2018 (the last available year of projected data).

From 2000 to 2007, undergraduate enrollment rose by 19 percent. During this period, there were larger relative gains in female enrollment (20 percent), full-time enrollment (24 percent), and enrollment in private institutions (32 percent) than in male enrollment (16 percent), part-time enrollment (10 percent), and enrollment in public institutions (15 percent).

Undergraduate enrollment at 2-year institutions increased from 5.9 to 6.6 million (11 percent) from 2000 to 2007 and is expected to reach 7.5 million students by 2018 (see table A-10-2). Between 2000 and 2007, 2-year college enrollment rose at a faster rate for females (13 percent) than for males (8 percent). According to projections, this pattern will continue, with female enrollment at 2-year institutions approaching 4.5 million in 2018 and male enrollment approaching 3.0 million in 2018.

Between 2000 and 2007, full-time undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions increased at a faster rate (21 percent) than part-time enrollment at 2-year institutions (5 percent). Projections indicate that this pattern will continue, with full-time enrollment reaching 3.1 million in 2018 and part-time enrollment reaching 4.3 million in 2018. Enrollment in private 2-year institutions rose at a faster rate (17 percent) than enrollment in public 2-year institutions (also referred to as community colleges) (11 percent) between 2000 and 2007. According to projections, in 2018, enrollment at private 2-year institutions will reach 344,000, compared with 7.1 million for public 2-year institutions.

Undergraduate enrollment at 4-year institutions increased from 7.2 to 9.0 million (25 percent) from 2000 to 2007 and is expected to reach 10.0 million students in 2018. Female enrollment at 4-year institutions increased at a faster rate (26 percent) than male enrollment (23 percent) during this period. According to projections, this pattern will continue, with female enrollment at 4-year institutions reaching nearly 5.8 million in 2018 and male enrollment reaching 4.2 million in 2018.

Between 2000 and 2007, full-time undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions increased at a faster rate than part-time enrollment at 4-year institutions (25 vs. 22 percent). Projections indicate that this pattern will continue, and in 2018, full-time enrollment at 4-year institutions will reach 8.1 million and part-time enrollment will reach 2.0 million. Enrollment in private 4-year institutions rose at a faster rate (34 percent) than enrollment in public 4-year institutions (20 percent) from 2000 to 2007. According to projections, in 2018, enrollment at private 4-year institutions will reach 3.5 million, while enrollment at public 4-year institutions will reach 6.5 million.

Technical Notes

Projections are based on data through 2007 and middle alternative assumptions concerning the economy. The most recent year of actual data is 2007, and 2018 is the last year for which projected data are available. For more information on projections, see NCES 2009-062. Data for 1999 were imputed using alternative procedures. For more information, see NCES 2001-083, appendix E. For more information on the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), see supplemental note 3. For more information about the Classification of Postsecondary Education Institutions, see supplemental note 8.

Actual and projected total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex and attendance status: Fall 1970–2018



National Center for Education Statistics

Music Industry Trends for 2009

Kyle Bylin of Hypebot.com explored 10 trends/issues shaping the music industry for 2009 at the beginning of this year that depict a time of technology, growing consumer leadership (over record companies), increasing individualization of habits and taste, and potentially too many options for people to consider.

Here's a condensed version of his list, click the link at the bottom of the post for the full article.
10 Music Industry Trends & Questions For 2009

1. Falling Behind - Rather than leading the way and deciding the future, the record industry is falling behind.

2. Groundswell - A social trend in which peopkle use technologies to get things they need from each other, rather than from traditional institutions like corporations.

3. Pirate Software - Pirating remains to be the most efficient method for getting music.

4. Paradox of Choice - Too many choices means more effort is require to make a decision (for people who buy CD's).

5. Music Overload - You can download more music than you could ever possibly listen to (for people who download music).

6. Searching Alone - People search online for music rather than perusing the aisles of their local CD store.

7. Not Local - People move too much to get into local causes and culture (i.e. local bands).

8. Mental Walls - Rockstars were supposed to be untouchable, but now some are becoming accessible and engaging more with their audience.

9. Attention - There are too many artists for people to pay attention to.

10. Specialization - Specialization helps us filter but also makes us become individualized with habits unique to us and our taste and makes it harder to find people similar to us.

Source: 10 Music Industry Trends & Questions For 2009

THE Large Scale Graph

Here is our large scale graph, a visual representation of social/cultural trends in the present. We chose to base social and cultural trends off of data that is indicative of the general social mood and cultural values throughout the past four years (2006-2009). The factors we chose to track were number of movie tickets sold per year (to comedy films, the most popular genre overall), number of CDs sold (rock), number of new hybrid cars on the road per year, and number of equal rights states laws passed per year. It should be noted that data for 2009 is incomplete, as the year is still in progress.



What triggered the trends:

Recession, less disposable income, more digital downloads, desire for convenience/instant gratification, shifts in political power, progression/growth in popularity of the green movement, increase in celebrity involvement in gay rights movement, etc.

Hidden Currents/What Forecasters Missed:

Forecasters were accurate in their predictions because they alone were able to recognize the effect the economic downturn would have in terms of consumer behavior and values. They based their forecast on the continuation of steady/consistent trends (i.e. CD sales are consistently dropping from year to year), as the past 4 years haven't had many wild cards to take us off the track we've been on.

Sources:

USA Today
New York Times
TV Ratings
Neilsen Rankings
The Big Picture
Nielsen Billboard Blog
The Numbers - Movie Market Summary
Album Sales
Billboard
Human Rights Campaign
HybridCars.com

The Social Context Shortlist

To begin studying social elements relevant to the present, it was essential to first create a master list of goals and issues to be evaluated. This list is not exhaustive, although we believe that it does contain the majority of dominating (and possibly some hidden) social trends that might ultimately indicate future movements and social evolution in relation to fashion and the overall aesthetic landscape of our world.

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT OF FASHION - WHAT TO LOOK FOR/DEFINE

· Dominating & silent factors

· Consumer attitudes towards dominating social issues

· What shapes consumer moods? What factors affect or change these moods?

· How do these issues frame consumer perceptions and lifestyle?

SOCIAL ISSUES IN THE PRESENT (2006-2009)

· Religion - rise and decline

· Immigration - coming in or going out?

· Green movement

· Healthcare - power to insurance companies or the government?

· Gay rights - fighting for marriage equality

· Frugality/return to the home & earth/organics and buying locally

· Marriage age

· Reproduction rate

· Women in the workplace

· Abortion

· Stem cell research

· Education - what, who, etc.

· Globalization

· Fame culture

· Social networking - ability/desire to relate person to person is changing

· Drug legalization?

· Information age - accessibility, instantly, anywhere

· Voting rights/fair elections - violent repression in Iran

· Women’s rights abroad - mainly the middle east; great US involvement in the region

· Sex slave trade

These issues are a jumping-off point. Later, more specific research concerning some or all of the above will be posted. Stay tuned!

More of World's Talented Workers Opt to Leave USA

This article from USA Today is of critical importance. In fact, this coming "brain drain" of the United States could be a hidden factor that might greatly influence the world in 2012. Because the average person is so focused on the problem of illegal immigrants coming in from Mexico, it is possible, if not likely, that much less attention will be given to the first actual exodus of immigrants from the United States. As career opportunities here have decreased with the suffering economy, skilled workers from India and China are returning to their home countries--nations that have experienced relative economic growth. Unfortunately, this could imply future struggles for the American economy (see our post on the state of American Education, as the subject matter here is related), which might ultimately be reflected in fashion trends. While the growing lack of opportunities here has been a factor in the phenomenon of "reverse immigration", this article also discusses other factors that are luring foreigners back to their homelands--convoluted US immigration policy being a major component in the mix.



Image: Nil Dutta may return to India after a long wait for permanent legal U.S. residency. Courtesy of Jeff A. Kowalsky for usatoday.com

A less diverse population, less competition for jobs, demographic shifts, possibly less talented professionals...how would all of these factors affect fashion and culture?

Here is the article from USA Today:

By Emily Bazar, USA TODAY

More skilled immigrants are giving up their American dreams to pursue careers back home, raising concerns that the U.S. may lose its competitive edge in science, technology and other fields.

ECONOMY: Driving emigration

"What was a trickle has become a flood," says Duke University's Vivek Wadhwa, who studies reverse immigration.

Wadhwa projects that in the next five years, 100,000 immigrants will go back to India and 100,000 to China, countries that have had rapid economic growth.

"For the first time in American history, we are experiencing the brain drain that other countries experienced," he says.

Suren Dutia, CEO of TiE Global, a worldwide network of professionals who promote entrepreneurship, says the U.S. economy will suffer without these skilled workers. "If the country is going to maintain the kind of economic well-being that we've enjoyed for many years, that requires having these incredibly gifted individuals who have been educated and trained by us," he says.

Wadhwa surveyed 1,203 Indian and Chinese immigrants who had worked or been educated here before returning to their homelands and found the exodus has less to do with the faltering U.S. economy than with other factors:

•Career opportunities. At NIIT, an information technology company based in New Delhi, about 10% of managers in India are returnees, mostly from the U.S., says CEO Vijay Thadani.

Most go into mid- to senior management and make "excellent employees," he says. "They're Indian, so they understand India, and they have lived outside the country."

China's government entices some skilled workers to return with incentives such as financial assistance and housing, says Wang Baodong, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington. "China needs a lot of well-trained personnel" in fields such as finance and information technology, he says.

•Quality of life and family ties. People return to India to reconnect with their families and culture, Dutia says. "They have a support system there, family and friends."

Purchasing power is greater, he says, which allows returnees to afford more luxuries than they did in the U.S. Dutia describes a complex of "magnificent homes" in Bangalore. In the club room, there were "all these Americans and Europeans and expats on the treadmills with iPhones, watching CNN and BBC," he says. "Things have changed."

•Immigration delays. Multinational companies that belong to the American Council on International Personnel tell Executive Director Lynn Shotwell that skilled immigrants are discouraged by the immigration process, she says. Some can wait up to a decade for permanent residency, she says. "They're frustrated with having an uncertain immigration status," she says. "They're giving up."